IonQ(IONQ) Stock Crash: Short Report & Funding Cliff Analysis

IonQ(IONQ) faces a severe crisis of confidence after Wolfpack Research released a scathing short report.
The report alleges IonQ lost Pentagon contracts that accounted for 86% of 2022-2024 revenue, creating a $54.6M 'black hole' in 2025 bookings.
Markets now view this as existential fundamental damage rather than mere earnings disappointment.

IonQ shares are down ~24.7% YTD, trading in the $35s—over 57% below 52-week highs ($82.09).
Brief early 2025 recovery erased by Q3 earnings shock and this short report.
Technicals show broken support levels with volume confirming institutional distribution.

Three primary drivers behind the selloff:
1. Pentagon Funding Cliff (High Risk): If true, core revenue source termination forces complete 2026+ guidance rewrite.
2. Business Identity Confusion: Desperate satellite (Capella) and atomic clock (Vector Atomics) acquisitions erode 'Pure Play' quantum premium.
3. Management Credibility Collapse: Report claims CEO resignation and $396.6M insider selling signaled internal awareness of these issues.

On Feb 4, 2026, Wolfpack revealed IonQ hid revenue gaps through desperate acquisitions.
Operating cash flow deteriorated from -$33M (Q4 2024) to -$123.1M (Q3 2025).
This compounds November 2025 Q3 results showing $1.05B net loss expansion.

Insider selling volume sounds alarms. ~$396M sold over past 12 months, with executive sales before plunge interpreted as 'exit signals.' Some analysts call recent drop oversold, but short allegations must clear before institutional buying resumes.